01 / Methodology & fictional examples
The Opportunity Memo.
A short commercial argument for one adjacent offer: what is visible, what it might mean and what would have to be true before a paid pilot makes sense.
01 / Evidence before recommendation
Three kinds of statement.
The memo separates public evidence from interpretation. It does not claim to know private sales, buyer intent or delivery economics from a website.
- Observed
- Specific facts visible in the current offer, buyer journey or public content. A real prospect memo links to the source and records the date reviewed.
- Inference
- One commercially plausible interpretation: a buyer, a problem, an adjacent offer and a reason to test it. This is a hypothesis, not a finding.
- Unverified
- The three to five private facts most likely to change the decision: paid demand, reasons for not buying, permissioned reach, delivery capacity and likely cannibalization.
The memo ends with the main reason the hypothesis could fail and the next qualification step. A public-page review can establish a useful question; private qualification determines whether it deserves a pilot.
02 / Fictional fitness example
Northline Strength Coaching
A fictional specialized coach serving busy professional men aged 35–50. The example assumes a $2,400, 12-week individual coaching offer with eight available places.
Illustrative memo extract
A bounded group implementation offer.
- Observed in this example
- A paid coaching page describes an individual program. Public transformation material and limited capacity are visible. Neither establishes completed paid sales, a qualified waiting list or unmet demand for a different format.
- Commercial inference
- A six-week Strength & Recomposition Implementation offer at $499 may suit qualified buyers who need structure but do not require individual coaching. The proposed boundary is a shared curriculum, a weekly group session, a standard three-day training structure and a defined escalation route.
- Unverified
- Recent paid buyers and credible outcomes for the existing offer.
- Why qualified prospects did not buy: price, trust, timing or fit.
- Relevant buyers reachable through a permissioned channel.
- Whether group support stays within a defined expert workload.
- Whether the offer serves a distinct buyer rather than displacing individual coaching.
“Did not buy at $2,400” does not mean “will buy a group offer at $499.” A lower price cannot resolve an unrelated trust or fit problem. Unbounded support could also recreate individual coaching at group pricing.
The next step is private qualification using commercial ranges and redacted evidence. The illustrative 22-buyer target belongs to a pilot economic model; it is not inferred from these public signals.
03 / Fictional professional education example
Clearline Reporting
A fictional educator with a $149 workshop, a $249 course and corporate training, serving finance and operations analysts who build recurring reports in Excel and Power Query.
Illustrative memo extract
From learning a tool to completing a workflow.
- Observed in this example
- The offer ladder includes workshops, self-paced learning and corporate training. LinkedIn and a course marketplace provide visible distribution signals. Marketplace learners are not automatically an owned, permissioned audience.
- Commercial inference
- A four-week Monthly Reporting Automation Lab at $749 may serve working analysts who want a recurring reporting workflow they can operate. The proposed format includes four live builds, templates, bounded office hours and a final workflow review using sanitized data.
- Unverified
- Evidence of working buyers with a recurring reporting problem.
- Permission, engagement and relevance within the assumed 4,500-person email list.
- Whether the employee or employer makes the purchase decision.
- Tool versions, prerequisites and a suitable common workflow.
- How much bespoke troubleshooting the expert can support.
Interest in Excel content may not translate into paid implementation demand. Employer approval, incompatible workflows or extensive troubleshooting can undermine both conversion and delivery economics.
The next step is to verify buyer context, distribution and support capacity privately. The illustrative 15-buyer target is an economic hypothesis to test, not evidence that these buyers exist.
A useful memo earns a conversation by identifying a testable opportunity and the facts that could disprove it. It does not authorize production.